Ok – I don’t normally write political pieces, but with the Republican nomination up for grabs and the South Carolina primary coming up this Saturday, I thought I might put in my two sense worth – no I didn’t misspell cents – I want to inject some common and not so common sense here. While you may like any one of the top guys in the republican race, I’m going on record to say that if the nomination is not Fred Thompson, the Democrats will take the White House. Here’s why Fred Thompson must win the nomination – No one else can beat Clinton or Obama. Lets look at the five top contenders: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mit Romney, and Fred Thompson. Rudy Giuliani – Pro-Choice. I don’t know if I even need to go further here, but I will explain it to those of you that don’t see why this would be a deal breaker. The last two presidential elections were split down the middle between Republicans and Democrats with less than 3% between the two. Now, I’m not going to address the abortion issue head on here, just the statistics for a pro-choice republican. This is a big issue for ultra-conservatives and even the not-so ultra-conservatives. If just 10% of the voting base of the republican party stayed home from the general election, the democrat nominee (not matter who it is) would win. Rudy cannot win if everything else were in his favor. John McCain – McCain-Lieberman (Climate Stewardship Act of 2003), McCain-Feingold (Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002), McCain-Kennedy (Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006), etc, etc, etc. I know many of you are thinking, “hey this guy knows how to reach across the isle” and I agree that can be a great trait in a president. In fact, I actually think McCain is the republican’s second best chance at the White House. But… He isn’t reaching across, he is living over there. With his campain finance reform bill and his latest immigration bill, I just don’t believe he will be able to pull enough votes to win. Again, it doesn’t matter if he is right on these issues, it matters if voters agree with him. All it takes is 5% of the republican voting base to stay home and the democrats win. Mike Huckabee – Wayne Dumond, In-State Tuition for illegal immigrants, higher taxes, bigger government, Huckabust! Wayne Dumond likely wasn’t Huckabee’s fault, but it won’t matter. Remember the swiftboat captains in the 2004 election? All it would take is one commercial showing that Huckabee urged the parole board to release Dumond (supposedly, Dumond had found faith in God). Dumond went on to kill and rape. Beyond that, he supports policies friendly to illegal immigration, higher taxes, and government restrictions like a national smoking ban in public places. The only reason you know his name today is Charisma magazine has posted several articles in favor of Huckabee. You may not read Charisma or even know what it is, but I bet your pastor does. And I believe the late boost in Huckabee’s compain is due in large part to Charisma, but just being a Christian doesn’t qualify you to be president. Many of us ‘evangelicals’ voted on President Bush based in part on his faith, but have found ourselves dissatisfied with the current situation. Leaving all of that aside – do any of us really believe Huckabee can beat the democratic nominee? I don’t. Mit Romney – Mormon. I know many people don’t have an issue with Romney’s faith, however many of the core republican voters do. If Romney were to take the nomination, you can bet your last dollar that you will see one of the 527 groups (example: swift boat vets) that will sound something like this: Mit Romney is on a path to become a god! Don’t believe us? Here’s what his faith says: The Lord Jesus Christ, our Redeemer and Savior, has given us our mapâ€”a code of laws and commandments whereby we might attain perfection and, eventually, godhood (LDS.org). All the democrats would need is to put off 5% of the Christian conservative base. Romney cannot win! So what makes Fred Thompson the right choice? He is conservative, he supports limited federal government, stronger states rights, and lowering taxes, he has a voting record of 100% pro-life, and he believes we should secure the boarder first. But hey, some of these other guys have similar platforms, right? Duncan Hunter is very close on the issues that I believe really matter to conservatives – but just like the front runners – he can’t win. Fred Thompson is charismatic, has name recognition, is well spoken, and truly conservative! He won’t be perfect, but he can win against Obama or Clinton. Ok – some of you are saying “but what about Ron Paul?” Here is the short of it – he has some great ideas (I’d love to see the IRS get the boot) but no matter how great his ideas sound, if he can’t get them done. He was voted one
of the “50 Most Effective Members of Congress” by Congressional Quarterly, but it seems from those I’ve spoken to, most people have never heard of him before this election, don’t know what he stands for, and when they hear him, don’t believe he can do what he says he will. He can’t win. So, while I’m not telling anyone who to vote for (most of you won’t vote in the primaries anyway), I did want to go on the record as stating that Fred Thompson has to win the nomination or the Republicans don’t have much of a chance in winning the White House.